Home prices will slide about 8 percent through the end of 2008, and the market will be especially weak in markets like Florida that have seen a great deal of speculative second home development. That’s the outlook from David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, who spoke at this week’s Mortgage Bankers Association National Secondary Market Conference & Expo. Moody’s Economy.com is making the same call. Wyss is worried about increasing defaults and foreclosures. National Association of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun served up a more upbeat outlook to CNNMoney. He expects a price drop over that period of just 1.4 percent, with a rebound in early 2008.:

He noted that speculative investors in a rising market drove up prices and are now taking profits or unloading slowly appreciating properties. Buying as an investment fell by 29 percent in 2006, according to NAR stats. That slide, which began in 2006, will last through the end of this year, Yun said. Now with the investor-purchase cycle out of the way, traditional factors will drive sales,” Yun said, including economic growth, job creation and population growth, as well as a demographic sweet spot: Boomers are reaching both peak earning years and the time of life when they start to buy second homes.

Home sales jumped 16% in April, according to the Commerce Department, but prices sank.

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