I spent last week with some of the nation’s top experts on retirement security at a fellowship program hosted by the National Press Foundation (NPF) and underwritten by Prudential. Our group of 17 journalists heard presentations on Social Security, pensions, health care, annuities, retirement housing and the federal budget deficit. All the sessions were on the record, and I plan to use a good deal of the material soon in Retire Smart columns. In the meantime, NPF has posted audio and Powerpoint presentations on its website. Each of the sessions runs about an hour, but if you’re interested in a five-star briefing on any of these issues, look no farther. Highlights:

Our Fiscal Future. Isabel Sawhill, Senior Fellow and co-director of the Center on Children and Families at the Brookings Institution.

Change in the Air. John Rother, Group Executive Officer of Policy and Strategy for AARP.

Retirement in the Private Sector. Dallas Salisbury, President & CEO, Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Future of Retirement Living. Elinor Ginzle, Director, Livable Communities, Office of Social Impact, AARP.

What Americans Know About Retirement. Barbara Bovbjer, Director for Education, Workforce and Income Security Issues at the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Decumulation. Mary Beth Franklin, Senior editor of Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine.

Retirement Planning. Jac Herschler, head of marketing, Prudential Annuities.

The entire roster of speakers is available here.

Strategy consultants Kevin and Shawn Coyne offer a provocative take on the Boomer retirement hype industry in an article and video interview at BusinessWeek.com. After combing through the numbers, they point out that 78 million Boomers won’t all be retiring at once, and that what some have called a tsunami really will look more like a rolling wave. Upshot: the market for retirement services looks less like a 78 million-person opportunity, and something more like 29 million. As a result, they argue, the growth rate in retired individuals will be much lower than thought, with financial services companies the big losers as they battle for market share to justify their huge investments in this market.

The Coynes argument rests of a few key assertions:

• The actual number of “true retirees,” which excludes those who never worked in the first place, will reach only 46 million in 2017.
• More Americans will choose to work beyond the traditional retirement age of 65
• The growth assumption is less than 3%, and the more likely growth rate is under 1%

My take: It’s always useful to cut through the hype about the Boomer market, where generalizations tend to be taken as fact. But the Coynes’ analysis uses too rigid a definition of “retiree.” The real demographic issue isn’t who has retired from a job and who has not –it’s about the undeniable age tsunami. The challenges of retirement security and health care issues are real and will be defining questions for business and government in the years ahead.

Legislation was introduced in the U.S. Senate last week aimed at making it easier for older Americans to stay in the workforce longer and encourage employers to recruit and retain older workers. The bill has bi-partisan sponsorship of Senators Gordon H. Smith (R-OR), Herb Kohl (D-WI), and Kent Conrad (D-ND).

I’ll have more on this in a future column over at RetirementRevised, but here are key provisions, according to a press release from the sponsors:

- Removing penalties in certain pension plans for workers who phase into retirement by receiving a lower salary while working reduced hours;

- Allowing seniors to earn delayed retirement credits for Social Security purposes for an additional two years until age 72, instead of age 70;

- Reducing the amount of Social Security benefits lost to seniors who claim benefits before reaching normal retirement age and while they continue working;

-Forming a National Resource Center on Aging and the Workforce within the Department of Labor to collect, organize and disseminate older worker information;

- Changing how Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) annuities are calculated by correcting a glitch that results in a disproportionate reduction in benefits for certain employees who phase into retirement by working part-time;

- Requiring states to include older worker representatives on the state and local workforce investment boards and set aside five percent of the Workforce Investment Act (WIA) funds to assist older individuals;

- Expanding eligibility of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) to include older workers; and

- Clarifying that certain defined benefit pension plans can define normal retirement age under their plans as the earlier of (1) the attainment of a specified age or (2) attainment of 30 or more years of service.

Kohl chairs the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging; Smith is its ranking member. A recent committee hearing on the bill is available as a webcast [requires Real Player].

Do we really become more set in our ways as we age? Not according to a recent SecurePath by Transamerica survey. The C.U.R.E. Retirement Study (change, uncertainty, risk and retirement education) probed the attitudes of pre-retirees about how they deal with factors outside their control, such as the economy. The survey responses seem to contradict the stereotypes:

• Two-thirds (65 percent) say they’ve gotten better at handling periods of change or uncertainty as they age.
• Half (50 percent) even say they are at their best during times of change and 50 percent find change exciting.
• When asked about their personal philosophy when it comes to finances and money, more than half (58 percent) can relate to the notion of “Nothing ventured, nothing gained,” and 48 percent agree with the statement “No risk, no reward”.
• Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of pre-retirees say they will handle the change and uncertainty associated with growing older well and two-thirds (65 percent) are confident that even with the uncertainty associated with retirement, everything will work out.

The findings are based on more than 2,000 interviews with working adults over age 50.

If you’d like to know how your change profile stacks up against the averages, you can take the risk quiz here.

Rising demand for health care services from aging Boomers will drive growth in medically-related real estate over the next decade, according to a Grubb & Ellis study. The report forecasts that medical properties will out-perform all other categories of commercial real estate in the years ahead:

“Medical office space is already outpacing traditional office space as
measured by asking rental rates. From 2000 to 2007, asking rental rates for
medical office space grew an average of 2.8 percent per year on average,
while rents for traditional office product grew an average of 1.3 percent,
according to Grubb & Ellis.

“The growing demand for medical services has kept healthcare
construction booming. Norcross, Ga.-based Reed Construction Data reports
that monthly spending on healthcare construction is 20 percent higher than
a year ago.”

The study notes a recent trend away from use of hospital beds in favor of outpatient services, and strong venture capital flows into the health care industry. Download the full report here.

Despite a reeling economy, the job market for college grads is robust, as companies prepare for an expected wave of Boomer retirements. The Chicago Tribune’s Barbara Rose reports that corporate recruiters have “continued to swarm onto college campuses. Career fairs sold out, as employers scrambled to get in front of seniors who hadn’t locked up jobs, as well as sophomores and juniors looking for internships.” Many job candidates report getting multiple offers, and recruiting specialists expect the strong market to persist over the next several years, no matter what happens with the economy. Fueling the market is employer fear of getting caught short-handed as Boomer retirements accelerate. The smaller GenX group coming up behind Boomers won’t fill the gap, so employers want to start grooming the next generation of talent now.

Recruiters probably should calmn down a little, since many Boomers won’t be rushing for the exits unless they’re pushed…and many will be available to work in new flexible consulting arrangements for years to come. Still, as the parent of college-age children, it’s nice to know the job market’s looking good.

Also see…

• Management consultant Bill Byham on brain drain.

• Korn/Ferry survey on re-careering.