Financial Markets

Investing in the boomer age wave

Sunday, February 18th, 2007

Goldman Sachs’ new basket of Japanese stocks that will benefit from the Boomer age wave got me thinking about U.S.-based boomer stocks. What companies will benefit most from the potent combination of increased longevity, affluence and the enormous size of the Boomer demographic segment? istock_000002737824xsmall.jpgTop investment analysts have been weighing in on Boomer stock plays; most are focusing on the obvious sectors—financial, healthcare, real estate and travel.

50+Digital will be monitoring market analysis and commentary on stocks that represent age wave plays, and collecting pointers to the best commentary. The most interesting analysis we’ve seen so far comes from Erik Dellith at Reuters, who recently published a list of ten favorite stocks . He started with a list of more than 1,000 companies, and boiled it down to just over 100 using various Reuters filters for quality. The final cut filtered for above average earnings-per-share growth within an industry category for both the trailing 12 months and the past five years. Two of his favorites: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nicholas Financial Inc.

Below is a live chart of the Reuters picks so you can keep score:



CNBC wild man Jim Cramer also has some views on boomer stocks. Like Reuters, Cramer likes Goldman Sachs. His picks also include Legg Mason Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group.

The hotel sector should be a strong play, according to a study by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, supported by rising leisure travel by aging boomers. The study points to full service hotels as a best bet.

When it comes time to sell stocks, who will buy?

Sunday, February 4th, 2007

Boomers have been an important drivers of the stock market for several decades. The arrival of IRAs and 401 (k) accounts collided nicely with Boomers’ need to start socking away money for retirement back in the 1980s…and the rest is market history.

The question now: what happens when Boomers start selling off their portfolios to fund retirement? The numerically-smaller generations of Americans that follow aren’t large enough to buy all that stock Boomers will be selling. Will boomer selling generate bigtime downward pressure on the markets>

Market experts have had a healthy debate going on this for a while. The latest installment is in today’s Washington Post, where writer Martha Hamilton interviews Robert T. Kiyosaki, author of the 2002 book Rich Dad’s Prophecy:

Kiyosaki noted that the laws that created Individual Retirement Accounts and 401(k) plans require people to start taking withdrawals from these tax-favored accounts at age 70 1/2 , which is in 2016 for the leading edge of the baby boom. He predicted that dynamic combined with “millions of baby boomers needing money for medical expenses” could create a sell-off.

Kiyosaki said he is still worried about such a prospect today, but he lists it as only as one of many ills that he thinks could undermine financial markets. . .

Wharton School of Economics Professor Jeremy J. Siegel has argued that the selloff phenomenon could spell disaster unless boomers sell their assets to investors from burgeoning economies such as India and China.

If you want to dig really deep into the topic, check out the U.S. Government Accountability Office’s 70-page report. GAO concludes there’s not much to worry about here; most retirees are spending down their assets at a modest rate. And, since boomers will retire over a 20-year span, the impact won’t be felt as a single shock wave.

Goldman Sachs adds Japanese boomer stock basket

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

Want to invest in the Baby Boom retirement wave? Consider Goldman Sachs’ Baby Boomer Basket E-Warrant–but only if you’re bullish on boomers in Japan. The basket mirrors the performance of 11 companies serving the Japanese boomer demographic. It’s heavily weighted toward travel, fitness and home products. Japanese retirees typically take their pension payouts in one lump sum. According to the Financial Times, that means Japanese boomers will spend their money in bigger bursts:

As a tradition in Japan, a large proportion of salarymen’s post-retirement income comes as a big lump sum at the moment they leave their company. This gives them a large amount of money to indulge in travel and other hobbies, which explains why East Japan Railway and Konami, which runs fitness clubs, each has a 10 per cent weighting in the Goldman basket.

Several large banks also are in the basket, which Goldman begins offering this month.

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